The French Parliamentary Permacrisis: The Beginning of a Fresh Governmental Reality

In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive British prime minister to occupy the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – with three in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for decades – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the next day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team announced the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look grim.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”