Trump's Ukraine Peace Initiative Represents a Benefit to Russia's Leader

For a brief period, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a firm position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "serious ramifications" in August in case Putin continued blocking peace discussions, he finally imposed substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously affected Putin's capability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

However, via his latest comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, which was developed by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, he has clearly reverted to his pro-Putin approach.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's proposal would effectively benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in peril. Although bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the plan effectively compromise that essential autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business experience, Trump seems to treat the war as a mere land disagreement, as if handing Putin a part of Ukrainian land will satisfy the ruler. But, Putin's invasion is not merely about controlling a destroyed region of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent desire to weaken it so it no longer functions as an appealing standard for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that his growing dictatorship prevents them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in place the currently separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would compel the nation to give up the whole Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a ten years of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defenses dangerously compromised.

The area is the site of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that are a critical barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, providing Putin a unobstructed path to the capital should he eventually opt to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would enable additional hostilities easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to cut the numbers of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Notably, Trump's proposal sets no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's attempts to depict Ukraine's legitimate leadership as radicals, Trump's proposal declares: "All extremist ideology and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting elections in Russia.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the initiative includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in regulation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". However given that the Russian leadership has violated similar agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized territory in the region to the government – how should the international community have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on external defense commitments. Although the plan warns of a "decisive joint armed reaction" should the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the particulars vary from fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not just block Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent member states from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the reassurance force, likely led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Russia from rebuilding his weakened troops, restocking, and attacking again.

International Concern

An additional parallel deal apparently would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and sustained aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. Yet in contrast to a powerful national defense – Ukraine's primary deterrent against future invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, like Trump, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not